If 2018 was a year of divergence—acceleration in the US, deceleration in the eurozone and China—2019 saw economies slowing across the board. There is a growing expectation of a global recession in the near future. Beyond the trade wars and uncertainty around Brexit, a number of economic indicators are flashing red or yellow.

Some 57% of private equity fund general partners (GPs) surveyed by Preqin worldwide think the economy has reached a cyclical peak, while 14% think it has already entered a recession. They are also significantly more worried about geopolitical conditions than they were a year earlier. Overall, these concerns about market stability help explain why their No. 1 source of anxiety (70% of respondents) is overheated asset valuations.

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